How to solve school probability problems
Most exam problems reduce to the classical formula P = m / n: m is the number of favourable outcomes and n the number of all equally likely outcomes. The key is to count m and n correctly and to make sure the outcomes really are equally likely.
Coins and dice
n coin tosses give 2n outcomes, and exactly k heads occur in C(n; k) of them. Two dice give 36 outcomes, three dice 216. For sums a table helps: for two dice the sum 8 can be obtained in five ways (2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2), so the probability is 5/36.
Independent events and «at least one»
For independent events the probability that both happen is the product: P(A and B) = P(A)·P(B). The probability of «at least one» is easiest through the opposite event: P = 1 − (1 − p1)(1 − p2)·… For incompatible events (they cannot occur together) the probabilities simply add.
A series of shots and the tree
If a shooter hits with probability p, a miss has probability q = 1 − p, and the probability of a given series is the product of the probabilities of each shot. When there are many cases, draw a tree: the probability of a path is the product along its branches, and the probability of an event is the sum over suitable paths.
Writing and rounding the answer
Exam answers are decimals or integers. If the fraction terminates (3/8 = 0.375), write it exactly. If it repeats (5/36 = 0.1388…), round as the problem asks, usually to hundredths: 0.14. A probability is always between 0 and 1: if you get a number above 1 or a negative one, look for a mistake.